The fact that Alexander Isak wants to leave Newcastle is one thing, but the fact that the team is enough to recruit him is completely different.
Newcastle expects any negotiations on serious transfer fee to start from a huge £ 150 million. To compare, that will make Isak the third expensive player in history, after only two blockbuster contracts of PSG, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.
The problem is that very few teams can meet that price. Even when ignoring professional factors, financial aspects are still a big barrier in approaching Isak.
Recruiting Isak for £ 150 million will cost about £ 171 million if the brokerage fee and 4% surcharges if the club buys the Premier League. Considering the regulations on profit and sustainability (PSR), these fees alone will increase the cost by 33 to £ 35 million if the contract lasts 5 years.
In addition, Isak's salary. Although it is unclear specific requirements, but with his position, the salary from 250,000 to 300,000 pounds/week is reasonable – equivalent to £ 15 to 18 million per year.
In short, in terms of accounting alone, signing a contract with Isak will cause the club to carry an additional 50 million pounds per year. The total cost of 5 years can exceed £ 250 million.
That means that many teams will have to withdraw. But does anyone have the ability?
Serie A
In Italy, Juventus has lost about 670 million pounds in the past 4 years. AC Milan and Inter Milan are gradually recovering financially but the fee for Isak will account for more than 40% of their last annual revenue.
Napoli, the Serie A champion last season, has a stable profit and strong cash flow, but their squad salary is still lower than Newcastle. Therefore, the ability to recruit Isak is quite fragile.
Bundesliga
In Germany, Frankfurt has a strong cash flow thanks to the sale of players but the revenue of the season 2023/24 will only reach 213 million pounds, so if buying Isak will cost more than 70% of that revenue.
Dortmund has a salary fund only about £ 12 million higher than Newcastle, so it is difficult to meet ISAK's salary requirements despite the stable finance. They spent money to buy Jobe Bellingham and Yan Couto from the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 bonus.
Bayern could be the most feasible destination. As the club with the fifth highest revenue in the world, Gray Lobster can buy Isak Song but are prioritizing other goals like Luis Diaz. Bayern once pursued Florian Wirtz, showing that they had enough financial potential. But if there is another goal, the ability to buy Isak will decrease.
Ligue 1
In France, only PSG is enough to recruit Isak. They are less bound by domestic financial regulations and have great revenue from the Champions League and the Club World Cup. Although Mbappe has gone, PSG's salary fund is still high.
However, PSG is currently in UEFA's financial supervision until the end of this season, so the spending is still limited. If they sell Randal Kolo Muorni, it can pave the way for Isak, both in terms of squad and financial.
La Liga
Barca is struggling to register the players who have recruited. Atletico has a balanced profit but debt, depreciation fee if buying Isak will account for more than half of their depreciation budget. In addition, Atletico has owned Julian Alvarez, so there will be no story that this team buys Isak.
Real Madrid can buy almost anyone. They have just announced the revenue of 1 billion pounds in 2024/25, the largest in the world. Despite recruiting Mbappe, Los Blancos still has a profit of 20 million pounds after tax.
However, Real Madrid spent nearly £ 150 million this summer. It is unlikely to spend an equivalent amount for Isak, even though it is not impossible.
Premier League
The richest tournament in the world is the most feasible place to buy Isak, but the choice is still limited. Tottenham has PSR location but lacks cash and does not want to break the current salary structure.
Chelsea is complying with PSR rules, but they are also in UEFA's supervision and have to sell players to register the Champions League list. Recruiting Isak will stretch the salary fund of the Blues which is being cut.
Arsenal used to be a possible destination, but preparing to recruit Viktor Gyokeres and spent more than £ 100 million this summer, making the Isak deal unlikely. Man City has strong financial and PSR is fine, they can buy Isak but the professional factor can cause the deal not to occur.
Man United has a large revenue (4th in the world) but the cash is limited and the debt is transferred more than £ 300 million. Want to buy Isak, they will need to sell players or continue to invest from Sir Jim Ratcliffe – it is difficult to do immediately.
Liverpool was suddenly the most likely destination. Despite spending more than £ 300 million, they have strong cash flow, low debt, increase in revenue and can sell Diaz, Darwin Nunez or Harvey Elliott to balance the budget. The close financial management of Fenway Sports Group helps The Reds are eligible to buy Isak, although it is still a difficult deal.
Saudi Pro League
Finally, it is impossible to ignore Al Hilal, the team of the same PIF fund with Newcastle. They did not encounter any financial limits – spent more than £ 400 million since June 2023.
If Al Hilal wants to buy Isak, they are completely possible. But the deal will be strictly controlled. The Premier League will require “fair market price” pricing, and if exceeded, Newcastle will have to adjust profits in PSR calculation.
At the European level, if Newcastle sells Isak to Al Hilal, UEFA will calculate the deal that is no profit, as ever done with Allan Saint-Maximin in 2023. Despite receiving money, Newcastle has not been calculated from the deal, so it does not help complying with UEFA's financial regulations.
